Look Out The Window

Quick, look out the window. It's raining. No, the sun's out. No, it's cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I can't tell what it is going to do.

Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but I'll wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.

At the beginning of every year we hear stock market forecast (whether we want to or not) and every one of the "experts" is about as accurate as our TV weatherman. Be sure to take your umbrella. Every year the Wall Street Journal surveys more than 50 economists and every year about 1/3rd of them are right. A weatherman can do better than that. The analysis of these birds seems impeccable and when you hear them speak so confidently you are sure they are right. He must be right - he's a broker/economist/financial planner and they know everything. Well, at least a lot more than I do - maybe.

Having owned a brokerage company and hired about 300 brokers I can assure you they don't know any more than you do. It just sounds that way. The one question you should always ask any broker before you give him your money is if he had a winning year last year. The market was down overall about 25%. If he lost more than 5% you don't want to know him. And if he says he made a bundle you had better question him carefully and ask for proof.

For the last 3 years almost everyone lost money. But this year it will be different. My broker said so. Only once before did it ever go down 4 years in a row and the odds of it's happening again are astronomical. Now that's logic for you. If you want to know what the weather is you look out the window. This same logic goes for the stock market. It is going down except for brief periods. As long as the major trend continues it would be wise NOT to buy anything.

Now that President Bush has given us his "stimulus" package and the Democrats have countered with theirs I wonder how long they are going to fight over how much and who gets what. It could be months before we see anything definitive from Washington. And that means you and I won't be getting any relief until then.

Tell those guys in the Beltway that it's raining and we need an umbrella - NOW!

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

MORE RESOURCES:

Morningstar, Inc. to Acquire Business Operations of InvestData ... - MarketWatch

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-0fd=Rurl=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Morningstar-Inc-Acquire-Business-Operations/story.aspx%3Fguid%3D%257BEB1E700C-0BE5-4755-B596-2F93CF004D01%257Dcid=1272930889ei=3bwnSdCpJJqO9QSQweQJusg=AFQjCNHtp_Eqm_KyBKzr39tW7RI5AhSoaQMorningstar, Inc. to Acquire Business Operations of InvestData b.../b/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fMarketWatchnbsp;-/font nobr19 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Morningstar provides data on more than 290000 investment offerings, including bstocks, mutual funds/b, and similar vehicles. The company has operations in 18 b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-1fd=Rurl=http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article%3FAID%3D/20081121/REG/811219975cid=1272930889ei=3bwnSdCpJJqO9QSQweQJusg=AFQjCNETYvWDM_B4HI_iVVIJIUd-IQs-7QMorningstar hooks up with South African firm/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrInvestmentNews/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1272930889hl=ennobrall 16 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Morningstar to Create Pension, Endowment, and Foundation Database - MarketWatch

Morningstar to Create Pension, Endowment, and Foundation Database - International Business Times

4 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio From the Financial Crisis - Motley Fool

Morningstar Enhances Investment Web Site Morningstar.com; Expands ... - MarketWatch

Flaherty to aid seniors - Globe and Mail

Global socialists toast victory over America - Small Gov Times

Morningstar Investment Services Introduces Three New Managed ... - MarketWatch

POLL SHOWS WISCONSIN RESIDENTS ARE HEAVILY INVESTED IN THE STOCK ... - The Daily Kenoshan

Stock Market Game Week in Review - TheStreet.com

Stocks-Mutual-Funds - Google News

RELATED ARTICLES

Ignore Stock Market Talking Heads
You should ignore analysts on TV, the radio, the newspaper and all other TALKING HEADS when it comes to investing! What stocks do they talk about? - The same old group, every day of every year - Why? Because they don't know any better, they are sheep like the general public, repeating what every economic textbook says and every other economist tells them to say. Everyday, the same companies are highlighted on the evening news -WHY?They aren't going anywhere.

War Market
There is no question that the stock market is being affected by war jitters. When it looks like peace we have a strong rally.

Is Your Garage Full Of Junk?
I have a 2-car garage. There are nice shelves on one side and a good practical workbench with a vice on the other side.

Hedge Funds
You read and hear a lot about hedge funds. Unfortunately, most of what you hear is negative because it comes from the major media that has an interest in reporting negatives about them because the major media is supported by so-called standard mutual funds and brokerage companies that spend big bucks for advertising.

I Love To Lose Money
Well, not really. What I mean is I don't mind losing a small amount when I have to sell a stock or mutual fund that is going down or taking away the profit I have made.

Market Timing?
The recent criminal fiasco in the mutual fund industry is being used by Wall Street to persuade investors that market timing is a bad thing. The late trading by Janus, Bank America and several other well known mutual funds is falsely being called market timing.

True Investment Road Maps
If you don't know where you are going any road will get there. After you get there you might not like where you ended up.

Never Fall In Love!
Recently I watched my favorite football team lose a vital game.I simply love this team.

The I Word is Coming to a Town Near You
Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc.

Why the Majority Fail at Stock Investing
The gleam and bright lights of Wall Street lure in many new investors each year, only to send them home crying to their friends and family. Why do so many people fail when it comes to the stock market? The reason is very simple: Hard work! Most people are looking for a quick buck or a fast path to riches.

Dont Buy Stocks based on P/E Ratio alone
I use the P/E ratio as a secondary indicator for buying and selling stocks but I don't use the ratio in the same a manner as many value investors teach. I will explain the difference in my methodology for using the P/E ratio to your advantage.

Emotional Maturity
If you are going to be a winner in the stock market you must have emotional maturity. I did not say you had to be smart or know how to pick stocks and mutual funds.

Successful Trading - Establish Your Risk Level
Before you embark upon a journey of trading stocks or futures, and before you make any trades, you MUST determine and establish your risk level. Traders that fail to do this are usually doomed from the start.

What Can Model Airplanes Teach You About Trading?
I was devastated!I just couldn't believe it. I was 10 years old and my dreams were shattered.

China Syndrome
There has been great condemnation recently because China has been selling its goods on the world market at prices below what other countries, especially the U.S.

Mr. Market
I constantly hear the talking heads on CNBC-TV, the radio and other places talking about THE market. Of course, they mean the stock market which actually now is world wide and no longer just concentrated in New York.

No Load Mutual Funds: Boost Your Portfolios Returns
Investors who exclusively use broadly diversified, no load mutual funds for their stock investments often lose out on opportunities to increase the reward potential of their portfolios. This article looks at two methods investors may use to enhance the performance of their portfolio of diversifed, no load mutual funds.

Jack and Jill
Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch abucket of ?money. Money? They are continuingto fill their bucket with stocks without anyconsideration to the value of these equities.

High Price/Earnings Ratios and the Stock Market: a Personal Odyssey
After some forty years of banking and investments, I retired in 2001. But since I do not golf, I soon found retirement to be very boring.

Analyzing Growth Stocks: An Important Focus For Any Investor
Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor. This is especially important, since stocks are an irreplaceable part of any good investment plan, and since unbiased stock research is hard to find.